Hydrology Professional Development Series (PDS) 1 : Provide Hydrologic Services

PCU 3: Execute a hydrologic/hydraulic model in an operational setting for routine forecast generation

Producers:
Dave Streubel, Development and Operations Hydrologist, Alaska/Pacific RFC, Anchorage, AK
David Welch, Development and Operations Hydrologist, Lower Mississippi RFC, Slidell, LA
Michael Welvaert, Service Hydrologist, WFO ARX, La Crosse, WI

Subject Matter Experts (SMEs):
Eric Jones (DOH at ABRFC)
Brian Astifan (DOH at OHRFC)
Scott Lincoln (SH at Chicago)

Description of Job Competency to be Achieved :
Forecasters will be able to prepare necessary input data, execute a variety of hydrologic and/or hydraulic models, produce riverine forecasts, and provide those forecasts to partners and users.

Description of Need :
Creation of accurate hydrologic/hydraulic model forecasts is a required component of the overall forecast process, necessary to produce timely hydrologic services.

Abilities/Performance Elements:

Ability 1. Obtain and quality control input data for hydrologic/hydraulic models Skill 1.1. Obtain observed and forecast input data Use MPE, DailyQC, Mountain Mapper, HydroView, other tools to generate observed forcings IC Title: Ensemble Tropical Rainfall Potential (eTRaP) Type: Formal Training (in LMS) URL/location: https://doc.csod.com IC Title: Precipitation Estimates, Part 1: Measurement Type: Formal Training (in LMS) URL/location: https://doc.csod.com IC Title: Precipitation Estimates, Part 2: Analysis Type: Formal Training (in LMS) URL/location: https://doc.csod.com IC Title: Rain Gauges: Are They Really Ground Truth? Type: Formal Training (in LMS) URL/location: https://doc.csod.com Use GFE, XNAV, other tools to generate and quality control forcings IC Title: Challenges and Tools Type: Formal Training (in LMS) URL/location: https://doc.csod.com IC Title: Quantitative Precipitation Forecasting Overview Type: Formal Training (in LMS) URL/location: https://doc.csod.com Use observed and forecast temperature as model inputs IC Title: WHFS User Site-Specific Hydrologic Predictor (SSHP) Type: Formal Training (in LMS) URL/location: https://doc.csod.com IC Title: Influence of Model Physics on NWP Forecasts - version 2 Type: Formal Training (in LMS) URL/location: https://doc.csod.com IC Title: COMET: Basic Hydrologic Sciences Distance Learning Course Type: Formal Training (in LMS) URL/location: https://doc.csod.com Use freezing level as model inputs IC Title: Winter Weather Precipitation Type Nowcasting Type: Formal Training (in LMS) URL/location: https://doc.csod.com IC Title: Melting Layer (ML) Type: Formal Training (in LMS) URL/location: https://doc.csod.com IC Title: QPE Rainfall Products Type: Formal Training (in LMS) URL/location: https://doc.csod.com Use river observations (stage/discharge) as model inputs IC Title: WHFS User Hydro Time Series Type: Formal Training (in LMS) URL/location: https://doc.csod.com IC Title: WHFS User HydroView 101 Type: Formal Training (in LMS) URL/location: https://doc.csod.com IC Title: Streamflow Routing Type: Formal Training (in LMS) URL/location: https://doc.csod.com IC Title: Stage-discharge relationships Type: Informal Training (not in LMS) URL/location: https://geology.humboldt.edu/courses/geology531/531_handouts/streamflow_data_analysis.pdf Use climatological data (i.e. PRISM, NCDC, other) as model inputs Coastal data (tide, extratropical/hurricane surge, wind) as model inputs IC Title: Introduction to Ocean Tides Type: Formal Training (in LMS) URL/location: https://doc.csod.com IC Title: SLOSH Display Training Type: Informal Training (not in LMS) URL/location: http://slosh.nws.noaa.gov/sloshPub/SLOSH-Display-Training.pdf Use ensemble inputs (Ensemble Streamflow Prediction ESP, Met Model Ensemble Forecasting System MMEFS), climate forcings (CPC climate forecasts), meteorological model ensemble inputs IC Title: Other Events that Trigger Flash Flooding Type: Formal Training (in LMS) URL/location: https://doc.csod.com IC Title: Introduction to Tropical Meteorology, 2nd Edition, Chapter 9: Observations, Analysis, and Prediction Type: Formal Training (in LMS) URL/location: https://doc.csod.com IC Title: Ensemble Forecasting Explained Type: Formal Training (in LMS) URL/location: https://doc.csod.com IC Title: Introduction to Ensemble Prediction Type: Formal Training (in LMS) URL/location: https://doc.csod.com IC Title: Introduction to the North American Ensemble Forecast System Type: Formal Training (in LMS) URL/location: https://doc.csod.com IC Title: Operational Model Matrix: Characteristics of NWP and Related Forecast Models Type: Reference URL/location: http://www.meted.ucar.edu/nwp/pcu2/ens_matrix/ IC Title: Introduction to Ensemble Streamflow Prediction Type: Formal Training (in LMS) URL/location: https://doc.csod.com Use probabilistic QPF (PQPF inputs) as model inputs IC Title: Using the Hydrologic Ensemble Forecast Service (HEFS) Type: Formal Training (in LMS) URL/location: https://doc.csod.com IC Title: Introduction to Ensemble Streamflow Prediction Type: Formal Training (in LMS) URL/location: https://doc.csod.com IC Title: SHEF Type: Formal Training (in LMS) URL/location: https://doc.csod.com Skill 1.2. Execute appropriate quality control on data IC Title: WHFS User HydroView 101 Type: Formal Training (in LMS) URL/location: https://doc.csod.com IC Title: Precipitation Estimates, Part 2: Analysis Type: Formal Training (in LMS) URL/location: https://doc.csod.com

Ability 2. Execute the hydrologic/hydraulic model to generate forecasts. Skill 2.1. Perform the following operations to start/complete/generate forecast: Execute a Forecast View/Modify Displays Check for Dataflow Check the Log Output Skill 2.2. Understand required operational hydrologic/hydraulic concepts inherent to the following model tools and techniques: Runoff models IC Title: Flash Flood Processes Type: Formal Training (in LMS) URL/location: https://doc.csod.com IC Title: Runoff Processes Type: Formal Training (in LMS) URL/location: https://doc.csod.com IC Title: Snowmelt Processes Type: Formal Training (in LMS) URL/location: https://doc.csod.com Site-specific Hydrologic/Headwater Predictor (SSHP) WHFS for WFO, or others IC Title: WHFS User Site-Specific Hydrologic Predictor (SSHP) Type: Formal Training (in LMS) URL/location: https://doc.csod.com IC Title: WHFS User Introduction to Hydrology Software in AWIPS Type: Formal Training (in LMS) URL/location: https://doc.csod.com Hydrologic Routing IC Title: Unit Hydrograph Theory Type: Formal Training (in LMS) URL/location: https://doc.csod.com Routings (Lag-K, Tatum, etc.) IC Title: Streamflow Routing Type: Formal Training (in LMS) URL/location: https://doc.csod.com Reservoir Routing Hydraulic routing: Hydraulic routing science concepts Boundary and initial conditions Flow types (critical, supercritical) Instability issues IC Title: How Streamflow is Measured Part 3: The stage-discharge relation Type: Formal Training (not in LMS) URL/location: https://water.usgs.gov/edu/streamflow3.html IC Title: Dams and Dam Failure - Module 1: Terminology and Open Channel Hydraulics Type: Formal Training (in LMS) URL/location: https://doc.csod.com IC Title: Dams and Dam Failure - Module 2: St. Venant Equations, Modeling, and Case Study Type: Formal Training (in LMS) URL/location: https://doc.csod.com IC Title: Impacts of a Vertical Datum Conversion on National Weather Service Hydrology Program and Customers Type: Formal Training (in LMS) URL/location: https://doc.csod.com Distributed Models Hydrologic Lab - Research Distributed Hydrologic Model (RDHM) Distributed Hydrologic Model - Threshold Frequency (RDHM DHM-TF) Gridded Flash Flood Guidance (GFFG) IC Title: Distributed Hydrologic Models for Flow Forecasts - Part 1 Type: Formal Training (in LMS) URL/location: https://doc.csod.com IC Title: Distributed Hydrologic Models for Flow Forecasts - Part 2 Type: Formal Training (in LMS) URL/location: https://doc.csod.com Extended Streamflow Prediction (ESP) IC Title: Introduction to Ensemble Streamflow Prediction Type: Formal Training (in LMS) URL/location: https://doc.csod.com Water Supply AHPS standard probabilistic products Hydrologic Ensemble Forecast System (HEFS) IC Title: Using the Hydrologic Ensemble Forecast Service (HEFS) Type: Formal Training (in LMS) URL/location: https://doc.csod.com Statistical Water Supply (Regression Based Water Supply) Met Model Ensemble Forecasting System (MMEFS) Skill 2.3. Evaluate hydrologic/hydraulic model component output for potential errors/biases and make an assessment of model performance Use conceptual and operational knowledge to assess and evaluate output of the following operations SAC-SM SNOW-17/Rain-Snow IC Title: Snowmelt Processes Type: Formal Training (in LMS) URL/location: https://doc.csod.com Antecedent Precipitation Index (API) Continuous Unit hydrograph IC Title: Unit Hydrograph Theory Type: Formal Training (in LMS) URL/location: https://doc.csod.com Frozen Ground Routing operations (Lag-K, Tatum, Layered Coefficient, Muskingum) IC Title: Streamflow Routing Type: Formal Training (in LMS) URL/location: https://doc.csod.com Merge Operations (precipitation/Time Series) Time Series Operations (ADD/SUB, ADJUST, TSCHNG) On a conceptual and operational level, assess and evaluate output of the following reservoir model operations: RES-SNGL ResJ HEC-ResSim On a conceptual and operational level, assess and evaluate output of the hydraulic models IC Title: Distributed Hydrologic Models for Flow Forecasts - Part 1 Type: Formal Training (in LMS) URL/location: https://doc.csod.com IC Title: Distributed Hydrologic Models for Flow Forecasts - Part 2 Type: Formal Training (in LMS) URL/location: https://doc.csod.com IC Title: Dams and Dam Failure - Module 1: Terminology and Open Channel Hydraulics Type: Formal Training (in LMS) URL/location: https://doc.csod.com On a conceptual and operational level, assess and evaluate output of Distributed Models On a conceptual and operational level, assess and evaluate output of Ensemble Steamflow Prediction (ESP) On a conceptual and operational level, assess and evaluate output from the Meteorological Model-based Ensemble Forecast System (MMEFS) IC Title: Introduction to Ensemble Streamflow Prediction Type: Formal Training (in LMS) URL/location: https://doc.csod.com

Ability 3. Adjust model states and forcings to account for biases and errors which impact streamflow forecasts Skill 3.1. Input appropriate model modifications in CHPS to account for model errors and biases Knowledge of run-time Modifiers in CHPS IC Title: Applying run-time modifiers in CHPS Type: Local office training URL/location: https://training.weather.gov/nwstc/CHPS/ Adjust Model Computational Time Interval (HEC-RAS) Make adjustments to SSHP parameters such as TRunoff, Headwater Guidance, or Precipitation to produce point river forecasts IC Title: WHFS User Site-Specific Hydrologic Predictor (SSHP) Type: Formal Training (in LMS) URL/location: https://doc.csod.com Use other data sources (such as soil type, current soil moisture, precipitation, and temperature, etc.) or models (such as AGWA, KINEROS or SWAT) to make adjustments to various model inputs or parameters in CHPS and in Water Supply Forecasting Skill 3.2. Compare tools used to account for probabilistic forecast biases (i.e., ENS_POST) to select the best one to use in a particular situation

Ability 4. Produce data and forecast output in appropriate formats for distribution to internal and external users Skill 4.1. Use appropriate formatter tools to produce data and forecast products of forcing data (QPE,QPF,QTE,QTF) and distribute to internal and external users (web, text products) Skill 4.2. Use appropriate tools to output and format forecast for the following routine products: Official Forecast IC Title: WHFS User RiverPro Type: Formal Training (in LMS) URL/location: https://doc.csod.com CHPS PI Service ESPADP or Graphics generator IC Title: Using the Hydrologic Ensemble Forecast Service (HEFS)? Type: Formal Training (in LMS) URL/location: https://doc.csod.com MMEFS product tools IC Title: NWS Short-range Hydrologic Ensembles Type: Informal Training (not in LMS) URL/location: https://www.weather.gov/erh/mmefs FFG and SSHP Contingency Forecast or specific flood products such as XSETS, GIFTS or similar tools