{sections}

 

{lessontitle}

4.2 Introduction

Forecast change indicator groups are used to describe significant changes to the prevailing conditions and/or to indicate temporary changes to the prevailing conditions. They can be used to forecast low probabilities for a thunderstorm or precipitation occurrence and their NWS authorized change indicator groupsassociated significant weather.

NWS authorized change indicator groups are:

  • FM (from)
  • TEMPO (temporary)
  • PROB30 (30% probability)

The FM group is used to indicate a significant change to the prevailing conditions at a specific point in time and therefore provides the user with more definitive information whereas TEMPO and PROB30 indicate a greater degree of uncertainty in the forecast.

Forecast changes should be kept to a minimum number needed to describe operationally significant changes.

Be careful not to over use conditional indicators like TEMPO or PROB30 because the lowest meteorological conditions forecast in a TAF will impact operational decisions.