3.6 Ensemble
Creating probabilistic forecasts provides users with another type of guidance on river conditions.
What are Ensemble Forecasts?
Ensemble forecasts are probabilistic (rather than deterministic) forecasts of river stage and flow.
The image on the right is an example of an ensemble forecast plot of stage and flow.
Hint: Click the image to enlarge/shrink.
Users
The primary users of ensemble forecasts are agriculture and power generation interests.
Differences from Daily Forecasts
Ensemble runs are automatic.
You do need to perform a quality control and quality assurance role.
If the ensemble run fails, go to the Manual Forecast tab and try running the ensemble workflow again. If this does not work, find an experienced forecaster and report the problem.