The functionality and associated activities for the total ESP system include coupled hydrometeorologic/hydrologic modeling procedures that better account for the natural and man-made complexities of local river basins.
ESP can also provide probabilistic hydrologic forecasts into the future from days to months.
Coupled meteorologic forecasts and climate predictions within the ESP procedure can provide advanced products (i.e., probability of occurrence information and inundated area mapping) for flood mitigation and water resources management activities.
Ensemble vs Deterministic
A significant contribution of ensemble forecasting, in contrast to deterministic forecasts, is the resulting capability to assess 'what if' scenarios using the resulting exceedence probability information.
For example, should a flood fight be eminent and the question raised regarding the height to which protective works should be built, probable scenarios can be derived with consideration of ESP products.
Using this type of real-time generated product, along with existing deterministic forecasts, an elevation which corresponds to an acceptable level of risk may be selected.
This same type information may be incorporated in other forecast applications as well.
