What to expect
Model calibration leads to obvious major benefits for operational forecasting:
With a well calibrated model, real time simulations should more closely follow observed streamflow, resulting in more accurate forecasts with a longer lead-time into the future.
Such well-calibrated models should require fewer run-time modifications to keep the models on track.
Also, models that can simulate historical conditions with a known degree of accuracy allow for reliable probabilistic forecasts to be made for predictions of streamflow and other variables weeks or months into the future.
In addition, the manual calibration process also allows the user to develop a much deeper understanding of the data and the models and their limitations.
This process is a chance for the calibrator to develop an understanding of the sensitivity of model parameters, interactions between parameters, effects of hydrologic inputs, and the knowledge of system mechanics.
Calibration is an important evolutionary step in the development of an effective hydrologic forecaster who will be better able to apply the models for operational use.